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The cold winter is expected to strengthen, and the demand for clothing changing seasons is expected to be gradually released

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The cold winter is expected to strengthen, and the demand for clothing changing seasons is expected to be gradually released

Oct 20/2021 / news / Author: DongJing

The decline in apparel companies in the first and third quarters was mainly due to the weak terminal sales, and the market expects the profit performance in the third quarter to be average
   Affected by the epidemic and other factors, the terminal sales of apparel companies in the third quarter were weak. In September, the sales of Taoxian platform in the apparel, footwear and bag industry fell by 25% year-on-year, and the rate of decline expanded by 17 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of categories, the sales of women's clothing in September decreased by 19% year-on-year, and the decline was 18% more than that in August; the sales of men's clothing in September decreased by 33% year-on-year, and the decline was 26% more than that in August; sales of sportswear in September The amount fell by 32% year-on-year, and the rate of decline expanded by 152 percentage points from the previous month.
The cold winter in the second and fourth quarters is expected to strengthen, and the demand for clothing change in the third quarter, which is suppressed by warmer temperatures, is expected to gradually release.
   According to reports, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States announced on October 14 that the La Niña phenomenon has returned. It is expected that the La Niña phenomenon will maintain a certain intensity throughout the winter and will only weaken after the spring.
The so-called La Niña phenomenon is an abnormally colder seawater in the central and eastern Pacific. It is mainly due to the southeast trade wind blowing the sun-heated seawater to the western Pacific, causing the sea level in the west to rise and the sea temperature to rise, and the pressure to drop in the eastern bottom. The sea turned upside down, causing the waters of the East Pacific Ocean to become cold.
   As the temperature of the western Pacific near the equator rises and the air pressure decreases, it will be easier to attract the high-pressure cold air from the north to continue southward, pulling the temperature down, and forming a cold winter effect on China. In this regard, the Japan Meteorological Agency has also stated in its long-term climate forecast that the cold air mass over Asia may be easier to move south this year, and the cold climate is expected to increase this year.
Specifically, China’s Central Meteorological Observatory also issued a blue cold wave warning on October 15. This time the strong cold air has a wide spread, and there will be "cliff" cooling in many places. In most areas, the temperature will drop by 6-10℃, and the temperature will drop by 12-14℃ in the southern part of Northeast China, eastern North China, eastern Huanghuai, Jianghuai and northeastern Jiangnan, and the local temperature can reach above 14℃.
   On the temperature of major cities, in the early morning of October 17, the lowest temperature in many parts of Beijing fell below 0°C for the first time, and the lowest temperature in the same period of mid-October since 1969 appeared at the observatory. On the same day, the minimum temperature in Seoul will also drop to 1 degree Celsius, setting the lowest record in mid-October in the past 64 years.
   From a historical point of view, the last cold winter phenomenon occurred from the end of 2017 to the beginning of 2018. At that time, the cold winter weather obviously stimulated the sales of the clothing industry. In November 2017, the wholesale and retail data above designated size for apparel, footwear, hats and knitwear category was +9.5% year-on-year, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from October; the clothing category grew by 10.20% year-on-year, which was an increase of 1.3 percentage points from October. From the perspective of the company, the local brand Peacebird achieved a net profit of 303 million (+60.52%) in the fourth quarter of 2017, which exceeded market expectations; the overseas brand Uniqlo’s revenue increased by 16.7% from September 2017 to November 2017. Net profit increased by 14.9% year-on-year, and its biggest driving force came from Uniqlo's unexpected growth in mainland China and South Korea, which benefited from the cold winter.
   In the third quarter of this year, the textile and apparel industry was affected by the epidemic and warmer weather. Consumers' demand for seasonal clothing purchases was suppressed. The base figure in 2020 was high, and the textile and apparel terminal retail situation was weak. However, the warmer weather only delays the demand for changing seasons to buy clothes, rather than the disappearance of demand. According to weather forecasts, the fourth quarter will usher in more cold currents. The accumulated demand for clothes is expected to gradually release, which is expected to drive the apparel and textile industry. Performance rebounded.